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2020/08/12

Can Gold and Silver be considered as safe-haven asset or great hedge against inflation?

Gold and silver have been attractive asset to the investors recently as the central bank policy interest rates have been low after the emerge of COVID-19. It is considered as 'must have' assets among Robinhood due to their portfolio diversification.
In WSJ article, Jason Zweig calls Gold as yellow metal. Gold looks cheap for investors since they regard gold as extremely safe-assets. This ETF related to gold this year values nearly $215 billion; which is about 2 time more than a year ago. Around one-fifth of cash inflow to the gold asset has been made since January 1st 2020 as reported by World Gold Council.

Gold itself do not go up or down in its own value. The value of gold is relatively determined by the interest rate of cash. That means if Federal Fund Rate is set to be higher, then the value of cash follows that. (Interest rate means price of cash) If cash value increases, then the price of gold becomes relatively low. Gold shines brightest when the phase of inflation soars up due to devaluation of cash.

So investor regarded gold as 1. great hedge of inflation and 2. safe-haven assets. If economic downturns take place, people will look for gold. It makes sense however, not always. If the price of gold becomes relatively higher than other assets, then the price might fall due to the overheat of it.

I do not think gold and silver as very attractive assets than the stocks or bonds since it has storage cost, however produces no income like dividend or coupon(yields). The price of gold is also very uncertain against the economy. When economy recovers up and central banks pushes interest rate higher, then it will hurt gold. 

The similar characteristic asset that gold have would be TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protection Security).

However, I do not raise any problems about the possession of gold for the investment diversification.

Source 1: A Golden Rule From a Golden Fool
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-golden-rule-from-a-golden-fool-11595599207

Source 2: Silver vs. Gold: How the Two Metals Compare as Investments
https://www.wsj.com/articles/silver-vs-gold-how-the-two-metals-compare-as-investments-11596899825

Source 3: Why Gold Prices Are Hitting All-Time Highs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-gold-prices-are-hitting-all-time-highs-11596533550

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