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2020/10/28

Rise and fall of the leaders [reformers] in emerging countries.

The regime has changed when the country was in the middle of economic crisis. French former President Charles de Gaulle pointed out that the great leader emerges through the encounter of exceptional periods in history. From mid 1990s to the early 2000s was known for the crisis in the emerging countries due to their fundamental economic deterioration mostly because of foreign debts. Numerous reformers emerged amidst economic crisis to convert the downturn position into opportunity of gaining popularity. However, there was rise and fall in their regime. Below leaders are the examples of it. 

Vladimir Putin [since 1999, Russia]

While Russia was struggling to escape from the severe financial crisis of 1998, Vladimir Putin was appointed as the Prime Minister of Russia, endeavoring relentless reform efforts, including reducing Russia's debt. With help from Herman Gref (Minister of Economics and Trade of Russia), and Alexei Kudrin (Minister of Finance), Putin led reform and growth of Russian economy, saving budgets from their crude oil exports or investing in new industries. Promoting tax reform along with financial efforts to prepare for recession was also one of the improvements. To reduce corruption, tax types were reduced from 200 to 16 types, and all officials who were involved in tax corruption were fired. However, rise and fall always come. Over the time, politics and policy using populism declines the productivity and the leader tends to become arrogant when he or she takes the power for long time. These factors have a fatal impact on the economy of one’s country, halting reform, and the leader concentrates on his or her power dominance. Putin has fired Kudrin leading to the economic slowdown as commodity price drops.


Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [2003-2010, Brazil]

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, former president of Brazil, took over the regime from Fernando Henrique Cardoso and reformed one’s economy. He was the first president from Worker’s Party. During the times of South American economic crisis of 2002, Brazil economy suffered with a plunge in the Real (Brazilian currency) value and Ibovespa index (stock market) due to hyperinflation. As Luiz da Silver’s election victory in 2002 motivated the early reforms. He appointed Henrique Meirelles (former FleetBoston Financial Bank Chairman) as the president of Banco Central do Brasil (Central Bank of Brazil). The chairman rose the benchmark interest rate by 25% to fight inflation. With economic help from surging price of steel and other products, Brazilian economy has improved tremendously. However, the former president was found guilty of corruption and money laundering in his regime and was sentenced to 12 years of prison on January 25th. 

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [2003–2014, Turkey]

During the time Turkey was suffering from serious financial crash in 2001, large quantities of Turkish lira were facing massive outflow into U.S. dollars or Euros. This was chance for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to gain his popularity. He has served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 and contributed to the economic reform by appointing competent economic advisors such as Finance Minister Ali Babacan. The Prime Minister has contributed in reforming pension system, passing laws to privatize state-owned banks, liquidating bankrupt companies more smoothly, maintaining a surplus budget and strengthening the state finances. As a result, the average per capita income will rise by more than $10,000. But it has changed from pragmatic reform to its political power and corruption. In his third term of regime, the practices to create the atmosphere of the Ottoman Empire has led to the corruption and scandal. 

Deng Xiaoping [1989-2002, China]

Amid China had difficulty in economic growth in 1980s, Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1989 and visited New York and Singapore to benchmark their economy which later influenced China’s pragmatic improvement. The Communist Party authorities implemented the market reforms by de-collectivization of agriculture, the opening up foreign investment, and encouragement for entrepreneurs to start businesses. Privatization and contracting out of much state-owned industry was carried out since a large percentage of industries remained state-owned. Lifting of price controls was a major reform in following free market economy. Later In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization. However, the political repression, including the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, increased public demand for political freedom that corresponds to the economic freedom he promised to give. 

Others

Colombian President, Alvaro Uribe Velez, elected after two financial crises in 1990. He put effort in the economic growth by restructuring the country's finances and quelling the guerrilla rebellion, which were regarded as an obstacle to national growth. However, his beautiful days did not last long, He has lost the public's trust and failed to succeed in three consecutive terms. Suharto was in regime for 31 years in Indonesia. He has made high growth in 1970, 1980, escaping from poor countries. However, corruption of family and school relations delays were discovered and made riots in Jakarta. General Augusto Pinochet, former Chilean dictator, controlled over hyperinflation, fiscal spending and debt when Chile had struggled with the economy. However, It has been revealed that Pinochet embezzled public money from 1973 to 1990 and took $26 million through arms smuggling. Former President of Argentina, Nestor Kirchner struggled to get out from economic downturn. He has tightened the economic belt in 2005 and the economy slowly recovered. However, in his regime, the details of bribery received from construction and energy companies were released, which made the president in bribery scandal. 

[Columbia, Indonesia, Chile, Argentina]

It is not only emerging country.

Advanced countries such as U.S also have rise and fall of the leader. Ronald Reagan, former president of United States was a symbol of a reformer with economic victory against the Soviet Union, Japan, and Germany. Even though he has suppressed hyperinflation, he could not avoid scandal issue. 

Exception 

Not every leader has rise and fall. There are exceptions. Venezuelan former radical populist President Hugo Chávez Chavez promoted experimental socialism but has laid more economic downturn. However, Lee Kuan Yew ruled Singapore for over 30 years, but his energy for reform has never cooled down. Singapore economy has never been in serious downturn during his regime. Mahathir Mohamad has years achieved economic miracles when he was taking role as Prime Minister of Malaysia. There was no corruption or scandal during his era. 

[Venezuela, Malaysia, Singapore]


Source: Rise and Fall of the Nation [Ruchir Sharma]


댓글 4개:








  1. I read a good article. Well summarized the characteristics and key points of the leaders. I am curious about your opinion. First, what do you think is a good leader? Second, is the President of South Korea doing well? Thank you very much

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  2. Good leaders are the ones who try to reform their countries' economy constantly without any corruption or scandal. Of course, most of leaders are greedy and ambitious to extend their regime. The recent example may be China when Mr.Xi abolished presidential term limit. However, the leaders should be careful when the power comes to their hand, the corruption follows by taking advantage of the wealth.

    I don't know much about the performances of Mr.Moon yet. The consensus will evaluate his presidential career later on.

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    답글
    1. I learned what a leader's qualities are. A great leader you think is someone who can revive the economy. However, my opinion is a little different. I think a great leader is someone who can endure sacrifices with an attitude toward the people.
      anyway, I think you can become a better critic if you don't think too lean and broaden your perspective.

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